Each week Lee puts out his very accurate Weekend Water predictions which are published on the Canoe Club of Harrisburg website. His full prediction includes much of Central and Eastern PA as well as the Western Maryland Region. So I’ve edited it down to the rivers here in Western MD and within a short drive of here in West Virginia and Western PA. You can find his whole prediction by clicking on “Weekend Water” above.
Without further ado here is Lee’s water level prediction for Western MD and the surrounding watersheds:
WEATHER - Rain on and off through Saturday then tapering off on Sat afternoon for most of the area (except far eastern PA). Western PA & MD will clear a little earlier. This rain is expected to produce significant rainfall over a fairly large area. For the most part, this has been a steady, soaking rain, so much of it has soaked in to the previously dry ground rather than running off. A thunderstorm / downpour would have produced a higher percentage of runoff. In most areas we haven’t seen as much runoff as you’d normally expect for the amount of rain but I think that the ground is starting to saturate and some of the wetlands have been recharged so that with the additional rain we’ll start seeing more runoff. A picture is worth a thousand words so go to http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and click through the days, click on the map of each day to enlarge it. You can also go to http://www.erh.noaa.gov/marfc/Maps/qpf/qpf_24hr_24.png and http://www.erh.noaa.gov/marfc/Maps/qpf/qpf_48hr_48.png Expect seasonable high temps with highs in the low 60’s.
NATURAL FLOW
LOWER YOUGH - Currently 2.23ft , 1200cfs with 900 coming from the dam. Expect slightly less (~2.1 / 1100cfs) for the weekend.
CHEAT (CANYON & NARROWS) - Will be cranking all weekend. Currently 4280 cfs at Parsons and rising. If you look at the “headwaters” gages Bemis, Bowden, and Job are still rising; Cheat Bridge has just crested this morning. You can get this information by going to this web page http://www.afws.net/states/wv/wv.htm and then clicking on Randolph and Tucker counties. It is still raining there as I write this and modeerate amounts of additional rain are expected. I would expect the Canyon to crest on Friday but still be at a very beefy level on Saturday (4.5-5.5 ft - could be more depending on the rainfall). Sunday should bring levels of upper 3’s to lower 4’s. The Narrows is a much more hospitable run at higher water levels.
FORKS of the CHEAT - A lot of possibilities, especially on Saturday. I don’t have a lot of experience forecasting them and then going out an paddling to see how good my forecast was, then refining the process. The lower sections of the DRY FORK and SHAVERS FORK will certainly be running.
TYGART - Plenty of water all weekend in the GORGE. (unfortunately the Middle Fork didn’t get as much rain). The AUDRA section wil be at a pretty beefy level.
UPPER YOUGH - Currently runnable on natural flow 3.09ft / 508 cfs at Friendsville (no releases from Deep Creek until 11/21), The level at Oakland is just cresting, more rain (moderate amounts) is on the way. UY will be runnable all weekend probably in the 400-500 cfs range. A slight shift in the path of the storm could bring it up an extra 200 cfs.
TOP YOUGH - Also looks to be running all weekend.
STONEYCREEK River - Looks to get just enough of the storm to get above minimum for a day. If the storm shifts slightly west good levels all weekend.
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